Forecasts for the oil and gas markets for 2014 were released recently. They predict a somewhat loose market, along with more positive news for those involved in the North American oil and gas industry. These projections were published in the “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, a document produced by the US Energy Information Administration. The report says that a “loose market” will result from higher global consumption of oil being offset by the increased global supply of fossil fuels.
The Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts that global liquid fuel consumption will remain stable in 2013 but will pick up again and increase in 2014 due to economic recovery–increasing by about 400,000 million barrels per day. The report predicts that most of the increase in consumption will come from outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a group of the world’s developed countries. In the OECD countries, the report predicts a decline in consumption of 300,000 million barrels per day due to decreasing use of liquid fuels in Europe that is not offset by the modest rise in consumption in North America. In 2014, the OECD overall decline will slow to 100,000 million barrels per day. The increase in the US is expected to be 70,000 barrels per day in 2013 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2014. Most of that increase will be in fuel oil and liquid petroleum gas.
Perhaps the more interesting information in the report pertains to energy production. The members of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to decrease crude oil supply in 2013 by 600,000 barrels per day due to a decline in production in Saudi Arabia. Other OPEC members, such as Iraq, Nigeria, and Angola, will increase production to pick up the slack over the next two years. But most growth in oil and gas production will come from non-OPEC members. The report projects that non-OPEC fuel production will grow by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2013 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2014. The days of fuel shortages due to OPEC policies like in the 1970s are looking more and more like the distant past. Production in North America alone is expected to account for two thirds of that non-OPEC growth!




The Eagle Ford has already shown impressive growth, going from 100,000 barrels per day of liquids such as natural gas in early 2011, to 700,000 barrels per day by December 2012. This dramatic increase is, according to WoodMac, due to technology and expertise. A lot of the money spent in the Eagle Ford this year will come from three major operators:
On first blush, you may ask, why is that a problem? Consider this: There may be cities or counties within Texas that, from time to time, create restrictions so severe that all oil and gas drilling and production activity is effectively prohibited. However, most of the regulations I am aware of are eminently reasonable. For example, many city or county regulations prohibit oil wells and compressors in residential areas or next to schools. There are good reasons for this. The noise and smell of an actively pumping oil well with an above ground pump, or the noise and smell of a compressor used on a gas well (especially one without a hospital muffler), are substantial. No one could sleep or have any peace near these activities. Secondly, no matter how high the fencing around pumps and other oilfield equipment, they are going to be an attractive nuisance for kids and teenagers and serious injuries or death may result. Thirdly, the location of these activities near homes is going to result in a substantial decrease in the value of those properties. Finally, local cities and counties who have drilling and production activity in residential areas forced upon them are going to find that the diminished value of those homes is going to decrease their tax revenues at a time when they are already struggling.